What strikes me is not just the avoidance of uncertainty, but how difficult it is to act in situations where both the information and the consequences are inherently unclear.
In practice, it’s rarely a question of choosing between a known and an unknown option, but of navigating ambiguity where neither the probabilities nor the outcomes are well understood.
That seems to be where many leaders get stuck, not simply because of bias, but because the situation itself resists clarity.
You are 100% right, Ragnar. In fact, I wrote a different article related to this.
I feel like a lot of people who avoid decisions (or make the worse one), aren't scared of risk, like is commonly thought. I feel like they're scared of uncertainty.
Check this out - and I'd love to know your thoughts:
This resonates, especially the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and how uncertainty becomes personal.
What I often see in practice is that the challenge is not just uncertainty itself, but the difficulty of making sense of the situation in the first place.
In those cases, it’s not only about tolerance for discomfort, but about orientation and about connecting what you’re seeing with where you’re trying to go.
Without that, even small, reversible bets can lose direction.
Curious how you think about that link between making sense and maintaining direction over time.
This makes a lot of sense and is truly relatable for me. “The risk isn’t that the decision might be wrong. The risk is that you might be wrong.” It’s interesting how often we mistake avoiding uncertainty for making a safe decision. Sometimes, staying with what we already know can actually be the riskier choice.
Staying where we’re comfortable can keep us stuck, and the longer we stay there, the harder it can become to try something new. I’ll keep reminding myself that I’ll never know what’s possible if I never take the chance to try.
Honestly, I have to keep reminding myself to make the risky decisions as well.
I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how we make a decision that feels a little risky. But we learn to feel comfortable with that decision overtime. It becomes our new comfort zone.
But eventually, that comfort zone always, then becomes uncomfortable. In a way it turns into a prison. And we are scared to make another risky decision and create a new comfort.
The line that reframed this entire piece for me was "the risk isn't that the decision might be wrong. The risk is that you might be wrong." That is where the real resistance lives.
I see this in leaders who have built their entire identity around being the person who gets it right.
Uncertainty does not threaten their strategy. It threatens their sense of self. And once identity is at stake, the brain will choose a predictable failure over an uncertain outcome every single time.
Interesting framing.
What strikes me is not just the avoidance of uncertainty, but how difficult it is to act in situations where both the information and the consequences are inherently unclear.
In practice, it’s rarely a question of choosing between a known and an unknown option, but of navigating ambiguity where neither the probabilities nor the outcomes are well understood.
That seems to be where many leaders get stuck, not simply because of bias, but because the situation itself resists clarity.
You are 100% right, Ragnar. In fact, I wrote a different article related to this.
I feel like a lot of people who avoid decisions (or make the worse one), aren't scared of risk, like is commonly thought. I feel like they're scared of uncertainty.
Check this out - and I'd love to know your thoughts:
https://www.thebestleadershipnewsletter.com/p/leadership-confidence-risk-and-uncertainty
This resonates, especially the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and how uncertainty becomes personal.
What I often see in practice is that the challenge is not just uncertainty itself, but the difficulty of making sense of the situation in the first place.
In those cases, it’s not only about tolerance for discomfort, but about orientation and about connecting what you’re seeing with where you’re trying to go.
Without that, even small, reversible bets can lose direction.
Curious how you think about that link between making sense and maintaining direction over time.
This makes a lot of sense and is truly relatable for me. “The risk isn’t that the decision might be wrong. The risk is that you might be wrong.” It’s interesting how often we mistake avoiding uncertainty for making a safe decision. Sometimes, staying with what we already know can actually be the riskier choice.
Staying where we’re comfortable can keep us stuck, and the longer we stay there, the harder it can become to try something new. I’ll keep reminding myself that I’ll never know what’s possible if I never take the chance to try.
I’m so glad this resonated with you.
Honestly, I have to keep reminding myself to make the risky decisions as well.
I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how we make a decision that feels a little risky. But we learn to feel comfortable with that decision overtime. It becomes our new comfort zone.
But eventually, that comfort zone always, then becomes uncomfortable. In a way it turns into a prison. And we are scared to make another risky decision and create a new comfort.
I tried to articulate that here:
https://www.thebestleadershipnewsletter.com/p/comfort-zone-running-away
Let me know your thoughts if you get a chance
The line that reframed this entire piece for me was "the risk isn't that the decision might be wrong. The risk is that you might be wrong." That is where the real resistance lives.
I see this in leaders who have built their entire identity around being the person who gets it right.
Uncertainty does not threaten their strategy. It threatens their sense of self. And once identity is at stake, the brain will choose a predictable failure over an uncertain outcome every single time.